Papers on the Dynamics of Tourism in Mauritius


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The Institute is carrying out studies on the dynamics of tourism in Mauritius. The aim of those studies is to get a better understanding of this industry, to ascertain its impact upon the environment and to gain an insight in its possible future.

Paper I is an analysis of tourism arrivals, earnings and nights spent amongst others. This paper is available on line but note that it has not been peer reviewed yet. Comments by readers are most welcomed. 13th of January 2000

Paper II is an attempt to model European tourism arrivals to Mauritius by establishing a correlation between these arrivals and the Gross Domestic Product per capita of the European countries of origin. Extrapolations are then carried out to ascertain the number of arrivals that can be expected in the coming years till 2010.

Paper III completes Paper II by attempting to model tourism arrivals from countries other than those in Europe. By combining results from both papers, it becomes possible to make an assessment of the total number of tourists Mauritius can expect to receive till 2010.

Paper IV concerns itself with the average number of tourists present on the island at any one time and how this average changes over the years. Simple time series models are examined and extrapolated to 2010.

Paper V establishes a correlation the number of tourists on the island at any one time and the total number of bed places available in the hotel industry. Subsequently the number of bed places that will be required for future increases in tourism arrivals can be estimated. Furthermore it is possible to establish a link between tourism arrivals and the linear extent of coastal lands occupied by the hotel industry. In so doing it becomes possible to calculate the beach frontage that the hotel industry will try to control for hotel development. Preliminary calculations indicate that for each additional 100,000 tourism arrivals, an additional 8 kilometres of beaches are required to accommodate further hotel developments. Finally a phase diagram is proposed that depicts the evolution of the tourism industry in Mauritius over time as a dynamic system. Please note that this paper is a provisional version that may change without prior notice.

 

Last update: 25th of August 2003

Date on the Web: 13th of January 2000